KEY POINTS
- Zimbabwe’s economy is projected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2025.
- Agriculture recovery and global commodity prices drive growth expectations.
- Regional economies show mixed recovery rates in the coming year.
Zimbabwe’s economy is set for a notable rebound in 2025, with the World Bank projecting growth of 6.2 percent.
This growth outlook will come after a weak 2 percent growth in 2024, due to the severe drought conditions that affected crop production.
The latest projections, highlighted in the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects report, align with the government’s own forecast of 6 percent growth for the year.
Mthuli Ncube, the Finance Minister, also stressed the role of the agriculture to achieve this figure as the government expects a 12.5 percent increase in agricultural productivity.
However, the factors such as delayed onset of rains have put some little doubt on these expectations.
“We will reassess in four months after the farming season ends to determine if the 6 percent growth target remains achievable,” Ncube said.
Global dynamics and risks for Zimbabwe’s recovery
The World Bank also pointed out possible downside risks for Zimbabwe and other countries which are commodity dependent in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Slower-than-expected growth in China, a major buyer of minerals and metals, could dampen demand and lower commodity prices, adversely affecting export revenues.
“Growth in China could be lower than expected, less demand for minerals and thus it may hurt the countries whose exports relied a lot on the commodities,” said the World Bank.
Zimbabwe is part of a regional recovery trend, with Sub-Saharan Africa projected to grow by 4.2 percent in 2025-26.
According to New Zimbabwe, neighboring countries such as Zambia and Tanzania are also expected to see significant economic expansion, with Zambia expected to match Zimbabwe’s 6.2 percent growth in 2025.
Cross-sectional analysis shows differences in recovery patterns
While Zimbabwe is expected to have a better growth rate in the future, the South Africa’s economy, the largest economy in the region has been growing at a slow rate with 0.8 percent in 2024 and 1.8 percent in current year.
On the other hand, moderate growth forecasts for steady recovery are expected in Botswana and Mozambique with Botswana economy set to recover by 5.3 percent in 2025 and Mozambique by a 4 percent growth rate.
Nonetheless, the improvement of global economic circumstances to favour growth will give Zimbabwe a better prospect by concentrating in rehabilitation of agricultural sector and exploiting better prices on commodities.
Therefore, the performance of the country’s economy in 2025 will, therefore, be determined by factors such as favorable weather and market conditions.
