KEY POINTS

• Zimbabwe projects a 663,188-tonne cereal shortfall for the 2026/2027 season as El Niño threatens rainfall.

• The government plans a 600,000-tonne grain reserve and expanded irrigation to reduce food-supply risks.

• Fertiliser imports, livestock protection and climate-smart farming are central to the drought response.

Zimbabwe is projecting a cereal production shortfall of about 663,188 tonnes during the 2026/2027 agricultural season as authorities prepare for a potentially severe El Niño weather event that could disrupt rainfall and reduce crop yields.

Acting Information Minister Paul Mavima announced the forecast following a Cabinet meeting, saying the country expects to produce approximately 1.61 million tonnes of cereals against an estimated national requirement of 2.27 million tonnes.

The projected harvest would cover about 71% of the country’s cereal needs, leaving a gap that the government expects to manage through strategic grain reserves and limited imports.

The forecast has raised concerns about Zimbabwe’s food security as farmers prepare for the summer planting season. The risks are compounded by geopolitical tensions that could increase fuel and fertiliser prices or disrupt supplies needed for agricultural production.

Cabinet has approved an updated 2026/2027 Summer Plan incorporating drought mitigation measures, building on lessons from the 2024/2025 agricultural season, when Zimbabwe experienced its worst drought since 1980.

Government prepares grain reserves and expands irrigation

To reduce the impact of the projected shortfall, Zimbabwe plans to build a strategic grain reserve of 600,000 tonnes by October 2027. Authorities intend to purchase grain from the 2025/2026 summer harvest and the 2026 and 2027 winter cropping seasons, using new artificial intelligence-powered silos to support storage.

The reserve is intended to provide a buffer against poor harvests and help the government respond to shortages. However, the planned reserve is a separate measure from the projected production deficit, and its effectiveness will depend on how much grain is purchased, stored and made available when needed.

The government is also expanding irrigation to reduce farmers’ dependence on rainfall. More than 112,000 hectares have been identified for maize irrigation, while the Pfumvudza/Intwasa conservation farming programme is targeting 16 million plots for the coming season.

By the time of the Cabinet briefing, approximately 7.6 million plots had been established, covering 475,203 hectares. The programme promotes conservation farming practices intended to help farmers manage limited soil moisture and improve resilience to difficult growing conditions.

Fertiliser costs and supply disruptions add to risks

Beyond the weather forecast, Zimbabwe is concerned about geopolitical tensions that could push up fuel and fertiliser prices or delay deliveries.

Fertiliser is a key agricultural input, and shortages or higher prices can make it more difficult for farmers to prepare land, plant crops and maintain yields. Rising fuel costs can also increase expenses associated with irrigation, farm machinery and transporting produce.

To improve availability, the government has allowed duty-free imports of basal and top-dressing fertilisers. Existing provisions cover imports of 150,000 tonnes of ammonium nitrate and 100,000 tonnes of urea.

The government is also relying on public funding, private-sector financing and farmers’ own resources to support the summer cropping season. The success of these measures will depend partly on whether inputs reach farmers in time for planting and whether they remain affordable.

Livestock and vulnerable rural communities also at risk

The drought plan extends beyond cereal production. Government estimates that more than 2.2 million cattle could be at risk from drought in 2027, particularly if poor rainfall reduces pasture and water availability.

Authorities are establishing drought mitigation centres across the country’s 1,527 rural wards, with plans to support cattle dipping, feeding and marketing. Measures will also cover goats, poultry and fisheries to help protect rural livelihoods.

Zimbabwe’s experience during the 2024/2025 drought has underscored how a poor agricultural season can affect food supplies, livestock, household incomes and the wider economy. The new plan therefore combines grain storage, climate-smart farming, agricultural financing, livestock protection, imports and early-warning systems.

The projected deficit does not automatically mean Zimbabwe will need to import the entire 663,188 tonnes, as the final supply position will also depend on available stocks, winter harvests, grain purchases and actual production. Nevertheless, the forecast highlights the importance of preparing early, particularly if drought conditions coincide with higher international prices for agricultural inputs and food.